Outline:
Today, Canadians are
voting in the 2025 federal election
To select the upcoming government—but deciding on a victor isn’t as straightforward as one might assume.
Although the head of the political party that secures the majority of seats
usually
Becoming Prime Minister isn’t always guaranteed, even after winning an election; this is due to how Canada’s parliamentary system operates. A political party might “secure” the most seats but still may not end up with the top position.
federal election
but has yet to form a government.
Interested in getting more election information? Take a look at
Narcity’s 2025 Federal Election Hub
For an extensive overview of each party’s platform.
With 343 seats being contested for the first time and the
polls still tight
, the consequences are significant. The head of the Liberals
Mark Carney
and Conservative leader
Pierre Poilievre
are competing for the chance to lead the 45th Canadian Parliament — however, based on tonight’s outcomes, the person who ultimately takes control might be unexpected.
Winning the most seats alone isn’t enough for a party to lead the government — and specifically, Poilievre might face a challenging path unless he secures a majority victory tonight.
How Canada’s voting process really functions
As many Canadians are aware, Canada does not elect the prime minister directly. Instead, voters select a local representative known as a Member of Parliament or MP within their constituency. The party that secures over half of the 343 available seats—specifically, at least 172—is the one that forms the government.
usually
gets to form government.
If a single party secures a majority, the process is quite simple: The leader of that party assumes the role of prime minister.
However, if no party secures a majority, the situation can become complex.
In such circumstances, it doesn’t necessarily default to the political party with the majority of seats taking charge. According to Canada’s Constitution and established customs, the focus is on which group can “secure the support of the House,” indicating they must have sufficient Members of Parliament backing them during crucial legislative votes.
The function of the Governor General
Currently, Mary Simon serves as the Governor General representing King Charles III in Canada and holds a significant position. Following an election, it falls upon the Governor General to ensure that there is a prime minister who enjoys the support of the House of Commons.
For instance, if Mark Carney’s Liberals fail to secure the majority of seats tonight yet feel confident about gaining support from minor parties such as the NDP or the Greens, Carney might choose not to step down. Rather, he may inform Simon of his intention to present himself before Parliament with the aim of demonstrating sufficient backing to continue governing.
He would be forced to step down and allow someone else, such as Pierre Poilievre, an opportunity only if he fails to secure that backing — or if he faces a loss in a confidence vote.
Real-life example: The 2017 election in British Columbia
Although this situation has not occurred at the federal level for quite some time, there have been several recent instances provincially. During the 2017 British Columbia election, the BC Liberal Party led by Christy Clark secured more seats than any other party yet fell short of achieving a majority. Despite obtaining fewer seats overall, the BC New Democratic Party formed an alliance with the Green Party to govern collaboratively.
Following Clark’s defeat in a confidence vote, the lieutenant governor requested that John Horgan from the NDP take charge of forming the government. As premier, Horgan led his party with only 41 out of 87 seats in the B.C. Legislative Assembly for more than three years until he called an early election in 2020. This move resulted in securing a majority government and winning another term consecutively.
This demonstrates that a party doesn’t require a majority or even the most seats to stay in power.
What might happen this evening
Consider this example scenario: If Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives secure the highest number of seats tonight without achieving a majority, what would follow?
After the polling stations shut down, Elections Canada will begin tallying the votes and validating the outcomes. Although this might take some duration, typically by later tonight or dawn tomorrow, we should have a clear indication of the number of seats secured by each political party.
If Pierre Poilievres Conservative Party ends up with the highest number of seats—but falls short of the 172 required for a majority—Mark Carney would remain as prime minister.
for now
By default, under Canada’s system, the Governor General takes no immediate action—she only intervenes if someone acknowledges defeat and resigns or fails to maintain the confidence of the House of Commons.
At this juncture, Carney would face a decision to be made:
Option 1: Resign.
If Carney feels he cannot realistically maintain his position of power—perhaps due to overwhelming opposition from others and lack of backing from other political parties—he might decide to resign.
Should this occur, the Governor General would ask Poilievre to attempt forming the government. Despite this invitation, Poilievre must secure sufficient backing from additional political groups to pass his initial confidence vote once Parliament convenes. Lacking an outright majority, he will have to engage in negotiations with other factions for their support during this crucial first evaluation.
Choice 2: Remain and attempt to rule.
If Carney thinks he can garner sufficient backing — such as from the NDP or the Green Party — he might choose to remain in office and confront the newly elected Parliament. His administration would likely undergo an initial test via a confidence vote connected to the Speech from the Throne, potentially giving him around a month to strike a deal prior to the commencement of the new Parliament’s first session.
Should he lose that vote, he will have no choice but to step down. It is only at this point that the Governor General would invite another leader—most probably Poilievre—to attempt forming a government.
Although Parliament legally doesn’t need to convene for as long as one year, politically speaking, a fresh session should occur within just a few weeks. The initial sitting—and the crucial first confidence vote—would truly serve as the pivotal point.
The bottom line
Ultimately, Canada’s voting process relies on faith and backing within the House of Commons rather than merely securing the highest number of seats. Therefore, events following today’s polling might hold similar significance to the actual outcomes.
Regardless of whether it’s Mark Carney, Pierre Poilievre, or another individual stepping into Rideau Cottage as the upcoming prime minister, they will require more than merely securing a substantial number of seats—they must have the support of Parliament to truly assume the highest office.