The rapid and effective U.S. mission to apprehend Venezuela’s president, Nicolás Maduro, is expected to influence oil prices and may trigger a response in other financial markets on Monday.
President Donald Trump declared that Maduro had been captured and stated that the Venezuelan leader would face trial in the United States on allegations of narcoterrorism.
Although the U.S. action against Venezuela was not completely unexpected, the timing might have surprised many. For example, on the prediction market Kalshi, the price for a contract predicting Maduro would leave office before February was approximately 13 cents on the dollar.
The immediate attention of the markets will center around oil, which has already declined by 22% in the last 52 weeks.
It is expected that a more amicable Venezuelan government might enhance production — eventually. Previously, it has reported an estimate from Wood Mackenzie, a worldwide research and consulting company, indicating that upgrades and investments in Venezuela’s infrastructure could increase its oil output to approximately 2 million barrels per day within one or two years. It could then require an additional decade, along with billions of dollars in investment, to raise output by another 500,000 barrels per day.
From the records (December 2025): A shift in leadership in Venezuela might increase oil output — but perhaps not as significantly as expected
Trump, addressing an audience at his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida, stated that American oil corporations would “enter” Venezuela, “invest billions of dollars, repair the severely damaged infrastructure, particularly the oil facilities, and begin generating revenue for the nation.”
Ed Finley-Richardson, who maintains a Substack focused on updates about oil tankers, projected on the social media platform X that oil prices could drop by 4% when trading resumes on Sunday.
He also mentioned that it could benefit U.S. refineries that process the heavy oil Venezuela supplies, as well as subsea and oil-service companies that might be needed. It would negatively impact Canadian producers of similar heavy oil, he added.
Trump informed reporters that the U.S. will “manage” Venezuela until a transition he described as secure and thoughtful is completed.
Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado stated in a declaration that the opposition was prepared to take control. The Nobel Peace Prize recipient has backed Trump’s approach regarding Venezuela, but Trump, during a press conference, mentioned that Machado was “nice” yet did not have enough respect from Venezuelans to successfully lead the nation.
By early Sunday, Maduro’s vice president, Delcy Rodríguez, seemed to have assumed the presidency on an interim basis, and, as reported by the geopolitical and security intelligence firm Dragonfly, encountered little major public resistance.
Although Rodríguez herself issued a strong public declaration that Maduro was still the country’s legitimate president, Trump, as reported by Dragonfly, appeared to suggest that the U.S. would engage with and influence Rodríguez. According to Dragonfly, Trump has not publicly set specific demands for Rodríguez.
Gold typically serves as a safe-haven investment during times of military conflict, but the operation in Venezuela was quick, and gold prices have already risen 63% in the past year.
The Treasury market may also gain from reduced oil prices, which can help ease inflationary pressures. However, the yields on the 10-year Treasury note increased by 5 basis points during the previous week. Remember, yields and prices have an inverse relationship.
The sole market experiencing real trading during the U.S. military action was the digital currency sector, where bitcoin values remained stable, possibly suggesting that U.S. stock markets may also avoid significant fluctuations due to the operation.
The S&P 500 index dropped by 1% during the past week yet has risen by 15% in the last 52 weeks.
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