Outline:
Gamblers participating in prediction markets earned millions of dollars within minutes on Saturday by placing bets on Donald Trump’s potential military action against Venezuela.
A trader shared on X that he earned $80,000 in a single night through Polymarket by monitoring signals related to U.S. military actions.
The merchant noted that the United States had relocated its biggest aircraft carrier earlier, which led him to believe an attack on Venezuela was imminent.
The only uncertainty was when, so he created a basic bot to monitor Domino’s pizza orders near the Pentagon, a trend associated with late-night governmental activities.
The trader wrote, “The instant the pizza indicator bot detected an unusual activity, I received a notification on my phone and quickly bought as many ‘Will the US strike Venezuela’ shares on Polymarket. GG and thanks for playing.”
During the early hours of the day, Trump announced the strike on Truth Social, claiming that the United States conducted a major operation in Venezuela and detained President Nicolás Maduro along with his wife, who were subsequently taken out of the country.
“The United States of America has effectively conducted a major operation against Venezuela and its president, Nicolas Maduro, who, along with his wife, has been taken out of the country. This action was carried out in collaboration with U.S. law enforcement agencies. More information will be provided soon. A press conference is scheduled for today at 11 A.M. at Mar-a-Lago,” stated Trump.
Barrive in the country before Trump confirms the capture of Nicolas Maduro
By the time Trump spoke, Polymarket positions were already significantly in the money.
A recently established Polymarket account had placed over $30,000 on the possibility of Maduro leaving power. Following the time when US forces detained him overnight, the trader made approximately $400,000 within a day.
In prediction markets, the use of insider information is permitted. Participants openly make decisions based on private research and public indicators related to political events in Venezuela.
Regulatory attention has increased for prediction markets. Gaming commissions in the United States claim certain platforms operate like unauthorized sports betting services. Sports-related contracts on Kalshi and Polymarket have expanded rapidly.
Kalshi concluded a prolonged legal dispute with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission in 2025, yet this period of stability was short-lived as state gaming regulators started issuing demands to stop operations.
Cryptocurrency and oil markets respond as regulators target prediction platforms
Trump later mentioned during a press event that the United States would temporarily oversee Venezuela throughout a transition phase. He stated the objective was to restart oil production.
We are going to have our major U.S. oil companies enter, invest billions of dollars, repair the severely damaged infrastructure, and begin generating revenue for the nation,” Trump stated. He further mentioned, “They were producing almost nothing in comparison to what they could have been producing.
Shortly after Maduro’s arrest, high-ranking officials from his administration criticized the military action and cautioned against U.S. interference. Delcy Rodriguez, Maduro’s selected vice president, who Trump mentioned was inaugurated on Saturday, described the capture as “barbaric” and an “illegal and illegitimate abduction.”
She claimed it was an assault on Venezuela’s sovereignty and demanded the “immediate release” of Maduro and his wife, asserting that he is still “the only president of Venezuela.”
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio addressed reporters at Mar-a-Lago, stating that Maduro had opportunities to prevent his arrest. “Nicolás Maduro had several chances to avoid this situation. He was given multiple extremely generous offers, but instead, he behaved like a reckless individual.” In the meantime, Bitcoin rose above $91,000 as over $60 million in leveraged short positions were eliminated within an hour following a price increase of approximately $3,000 from the lows observed after the US initiated strikes on Venezuela.
Trump connected the removal of Maduro to the oil supply. He stated that Venezuela has approximately 300 billion barrels of oil, the biggest reserves globally, surpassing Saudi Arabia. “We developed Venezuela’s oil industry using American expertise, determination, and ability, and the socialist government took it away from us,” Trump mentioned. He also noted that the oil sanctions he implemented are still in place.
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