Overdose Deaths Drop in Most of 2025, Federal Data Shows

U.S. Overdose Deaths Show Longest Decline in Decades

New York (AP) — A significant shift has been observed in the United States regarding overdose deaths, with a sustained decline over the past two years. This marks the longest drop in decades for an epidemic that had been steadily worsening for many years. However, while the trend is encouraging, the rate of decline has slowed, and the monthly death toll remains higher than pre-pandemic levels.

Brandon Marshall, a researcher at Brown University who focuses on overdose trends, noted that the decline is widespread across the country. He emphasized that this development is positive, especially given the nationwide reduction in overdose deaths.

Overdose Deaths Fell in 45 States

The rise in overdose deaths began in the 1990s, driven by opioid painkillers, followed by heroin and more recently, illicit fentanyl. The peak was recorded in 2022, with nearly 110,000 overdose deaths. This number slightly decreased in 2023 and then dropped significantly by 27% in 2024, reaching around 80,000. This was the largest single-year decline ever recorded.

The latest data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), which covers up to August 2025, shows that an estimated 73,000 people died from overdoses in the 12-month period ending in August 2025. This represents a 21% decrease compared to the previous 12-month period, which had approximately 92,000 deaths.

While the majority of states saw a decline in overdose deaths, five states—Arizona, Hawaii, Kansas, New Mexico, and North Dakota—did not experience a decrease. However, officials caution that some states may not have fully reported all overdose deaths yet, and future data could change these numbers.

Possible Explanations for the Decline

Researchers are still uncertain about the exact reasons behind the decline in overdose deaths. Several theories have emerged:

• Increased availability of naloxone, a drug that can reverse overdoses.
• Expanded access to addiction treatment programs.
• Changes in drug use patterns among users.
• Impact of opioid lawsuit settlements, which have provided billions of dollars to address the crisis.

Some experts also suggest that the number of people at risk of overdose has been decreasing, as fewer teenagers are starting to use drugs and many long-term users have passed away.

Two new theories have recently gained attention:

China’s Regulatory Changes May Be Impacting the Drug Supply

A recent paper published in Science by researchers from the University of Maryland suggests that changes in Chinese regulations have affected the availability of precursor chemicals used to manufacture fentanyl. These changes, which occurred a few years ago, appear to have made it more difficult to produce fentanyl.

Evidence supporting this theory includes reports from Reddit users in the U.S. about a "fentanyl drought" in 2023. The researchers also point to information from the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration, which noted that the purity and potency of fentanyl increased during the early stages of the pandemic but declined after 2022.

Peter Reuter, one of the authors of the paper, acknowledged that the evidence is somewhat speculative but believes it makes a compelling case. He and his colleagues suggest that drug producers in Canada and Mexico may have found alternative sources for fentanyl production.

This theory builds on earlier research by University of Pittsburgh researchers, who linked a drop in overdose deaths in 2018 to regulatory changes in China concerning carfentanil, another potent synthetic opioid.

Pandemic Stimulus Payments Could Be a Factor

Another theory involves the impact of federal stimulus payments during the COVID-19 pandemic. Researchers from the University of Pittsburgh, Dr. Donald Burke and Dr. Hawre Jalal, explored this idea in a paper published in the International Journal of Drug Policy.

They tracked the three rounds of stimulus checks sent to U.S. households in 2020 and 2021 and observed surges in overdose deaths following each payment. While the money helped alleviate economic hardship for many families, some of it may have been used to purchase illicit drugs.

The researchers argue that the end of these payments contributed to the stabilization of overdose deaths in 2022 and their subsequent decline. However, Dr. Daniel Ciccarone, a drug policy expert at the University of California, San Francisco, cautions that these explanations are partial and do not establish a direct cause-and-effect relationship.

Political Factors and Future Concerns

The Maryland and Pittsburgh researchers also raised questions about the potential impact of Trump administration policies. They noted that tensions between the U.S. and China increased last year when Trump imposed higher tariffs on Chinese imports. This led to speculation that China might ease its efforts to regulate fentanyl precursors.

Additionally, Trump has promised $2,000 checks to Americans to offset rising prices caused by tariffs. Some experts worry that this could lead to increased drug use and overdoses. Dr. Burke urged federal officials to consider how such funds are distributed.

Meanwhile, the Trump administration recently canceled 2,000 grants, which could jeopardize mental health and drug treatment programs.