For many years, energy specialists have forecasted that natural gas will be the sole fossil fuel experiencing substantial growth in its portion of the world’s primary energy supply in the near future, owing to its function as a “transition fuel” because of its reduced emission levels when compared to coal and oil, along with its adaptability for maintaining grid reliability, particularly with rising demand in Asia and as a support system for renewable energy sources.
Natural gas is set to transform Africa’s future, providing new opportunities for nations to generate income from exports and foster local industrial development. Nonetheless, the continent’s conventional gas centers, including Egypt, Algeria, and Libya, are anticipated to see a decline in prominence, as sub-Saharan Africa—holding over 70% of the continent’s recoverable reserves—is expected to lead the majority of the anticipated production increase.
Africa’s emerging gas region will be led by Nigeria’s “Decade of Gas,” Senegal-Mauritania’s transnational hubs, Mozambique’s FLNG expansion, and Tanzania’s much-anticipated LNG structure. Indeed,LNG exportsThe volume of natural gas from sub-Saharan Africa is expected to increase by almost 175%, reaching 98 billion cubic meters (bcm) annually by 2034, up from 35.7 bcm in 2024.
Launched in 2021, Nigeria’s Decade of Gasis a national effort designed to utilize the nation’s extensive natural gas resources (more than 200 trillion cubic feet) to reshape the economy, accelerate industrial growth, decrease energy poverty, and expand exports by 2030. The initiative has prompted significant changes, particularly the enactment of the historicPetroleum Industry Act (PIA) 2021, which seeks to update the industry, draw in funding, and establish a more transparent regulatory structure.
It seems to be effective: the Nigerian government has recently stated that more than $8 billion in Final Investment Decisions (FIDs) for gas initiatives have been released in the past 18 months, reflecting increased investor trust following recent executive actions and changes.
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It has also supported the creation of several key infrastructure projects, such as the 614km Ajaokuta-Kaduna-Kano (AKK) gas pipeline, the Nigeria LNG (NLNG) Train 7 project, and the OML 53 Kwale Gas Gathering facility, which has been successfully put into operation. Through this initiative, Africa’s top oil producer has seen a notable increase in the demand for Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) and Compressed Natural Gas (CNG), due to government strategies—such as the autogas policy and National Gas Expansion Program—that encourage broader use in transportation and industry.
Nigeria’s West African neighbors, Senegal and Mauritania, are collaboratively working on theGreater Tortue Ahmeyim (GTA) natural gas field. GTA is a large, transnational offshore natural gas field located on the maritime boundary between Mauritania and Senegal, developed byBP Plc (NYSE:BP) and partners Kosmos Energy (NYSE:KOS), PETROSEN and SMHto produce LNG. GTA has substantial gas reserves, reportedly exceeding 15 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of recoverable gas, and some projections suggest the overall resource potential of the basin could be even greater. BP announced first gasIn January 2025, followed by the initial LNG production and the first export shipment in April 2025, Mauritania and Senegal will become LNG exporters. Phase 1 is anticipated to achieve its maximum production capacity of about 2.3 million tonnes of LNG annually (mtpa) once fully operational, which is still on schedule. Phase 2 intends to increase capacity by an additional 2.5-3.0 mtpa, although the Final Investment Decision (FID) remains pending. Construction for Phase 2 is currently scheduled to begin in January 2028.
Meanwhile, Mozambique is rapidly positioning itself as one of Africa’s major natural gas and liquefied natural gas (LNG) players, with total recoverable gas reserves valued at more than 150 Tcf, sufficient to make it a key global energy center. French oil and gas giant,TotalEnergies (NYSE:TTE), is getting readyto restart operations on its massive LNG project in Mozambique, despite an ongoing Islamist insurgency in the north that has seen new attacks forcing tens of thousands to flee in recent weeks.
Total abandoned the initiative four years ago, which had a liquefaction capacity of 13.1 million metric tons annually, because of security concerns. Holding a 26.5% share, Total is the primary manager of the $20B LNG project, marking it as Africa’s biggest private investment. India’s Bharat Petroleum Corp. Ltd (BPCL) has obtained the right to sell LNG from the delayed project, in which it owns a 10% stake, while three Indian public sector enterprises (PSUs) collectively hold a 30% interest.
Led by main operator Eni S.p.A. (NYSE:E) and ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM), the Rovuma LNG projectIn Mozambique, there is a large onshore project aimed at liquefying gas from the offshore Rovuma Basin (Area 4) for international export. The initiative seeks a capacity of 18 million tons per annum, utilizing 12 modular trains, each capable of producing 1.5 million tons per annum of LNG. The Coral South LNG project—the initial development within Mozambique’s Rovuma Basin—is an innovative offshore floating LNG (FLNG) facility located in the Rovuma Basin, making it the first of its kind in Africa, and it produces 3.4 million tons per annum of LNG for global markets from the Coral field.
Finally, Shell Plc (NYSE:SHEL) and Equinor (NYSE:EQNR) continues to work on the $42 billion LNG deal in Tanzania, which could become the country’s biggest foreign investment to date. The project is approaching a key milestone, with the completion of the Host Government Agreement (HGA) anticipated shortly, setting the stage for construction to start in the Likongo region of Lindi. Tanzania has substantial offshore natural gas resources, with total estimated reserves at 57 trillion cubic feet (tcf), of which about 49.5 tcf are found in deep-water areas.
This potential mainly revolves around the upcoming Likong’o-Mchinga Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) project, designed to establish the nation as a key international LNG supplier. This strategic initiative seeks to turn Tanzania into a significant energy exporter by leveraging extensive offshore gas resources to generate up to 10 million tons of LNG each year, with initial production possibly starting in 2029. Conflicts regarding the HGA financial terms and government benefits have caused delays for several years, but a final investment decision might be made in 2026.
By Alex Kimani for Oilprice.com
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