Outline:
The Rise and Challenges of Avatar: Fire and Ash
The latest installment in James Cameron’s Avatar franchise, Avatar: Fire and Ash, has made a strong start at the box office. As the third film in the series, following the 2009 original and 2022’s The Way of Water, it debuted at No. 1 on the weekend of December 19. This marked the second best opening weekend for the trilogy, and it remained at the top of the domestic chart for three consecutive weekends.
According to reports from Variety, Fire and Ash is expected to earn between $12 and $14 million over the 4-day Martin Luther King Jr. Day weekend. However, the horror sequel 28 Years Later: The Bone Temple is projected to debut with $20 to $22 million during the same period. This could make it the first movie to unseat Avatar: Fire and Ash from the top of the domestic box office.
If this happens, it would mean that Fire and Ash will have only managed four consecutive weekends at No. 1, falling short of the seven consecutive weeks that both previous Avatar films spent at the top of the chart. This suggests that the film is experiencing a faster decline in popularity than its predecessors, raising questions about its ability to reach the $2 billion milestone worldwide.
Despite these challenges, Fire and Ash remains a massive success. It has already grossed over $2.32 billion globally and currently ranks as the 29th highest-grossing movie of all time.
The Struggles of the 28 Years Later Franchise
While 28 Years Later: The Bone Temple appears poised to become the first 2026 movie to top the domestic chart, it is also facing similar issues with diminishing returns. The film is a direct follow-up to Danny Boyle’s 2025 movie 28 Years Later, which had a 3-day debut and earned $30 million. This figure is $8 million higher than the upper bound of the sequel’s projected 4-day opening weekend.
The original 28 Years Later reportedly cost $60 million, which could place its break-even point as high as $150 million. It just barely reached this threshold with a total theatrical run of $151.3 million.
The budget for The Bone Temple is even higher, at $63 million. If it follows the same trajectory as its predecessor, it may not be able to achieve the financial success needed to justify a third installment in the new trilogy.
The Broader Implications
The fact that The Bone Temple is likely to surpass Fire and Ash speaks more to the latter’s declining audience retention than to the strength of the horror film itself. Both movies are part of larger franchises, but they are facing different challenges in maintaining their box office dominance.
For Avatar: Fire and Ash, the question remains whether it can sustain its momentum and continue to build on the success of its predecessors. For 28 Years Later: The Bone Temple, the challenge is to prove that the franchise can maintain its appeal without relying solely on the hype of the first film.
As the box office landscape continues to evolve, both films will be closely watched to see how they perform in the coming weeks and months.