By Promit Mukherjee and Rod Nickel
OTTAWA (Tech News) — Canadians will head to the polls on Monday following an electoral race dominated by discussions of U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs and his remarks about potentially annexing Canada.
Trump’s threats ignited a wave of patriotism that swelled support for Liberal Prime Minister Mark Carney, a political newcomer who previously led two G7 central banks.
The campaign concluded with a solemn ending on Sunday when a man drove an SUV into a gathering at a Filipino community festival in Vancouver, resulting in at least 11 fatalities and numerous injuries.
Carney temporarily halted his campaign activities, with both him and Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre addressing the tragedy during their concluding rallies. Duane Bratt, a political science professor at Calgary’s Mount Royal University, stated that he anticipated the mass-casualty incident would not dissuade voters.
According to a CTV News-Globe and Mail-Nanos survey released on Sunday, Carney’s Liberals led Poilievre’s Conservatives by 2.7 percentage points nationally. The poll placed Liberal support at 42.6%, with Conservative backing at 39.9%.
A survey conducted by EKOS on Sunday indicated that the Liberals have a six-point advantage. The same poll forecasted the Liberals would secure a majority of seats in the 343-member House of Commons and wouldn’t require support from a minor party to form government.
Last week, Trump made another appearance as a key player in the political arena, suggesting that he could impose a 25% tax on vehicles manufactured in Canada since the U.S. doesn’t desire these imports. Previously, he had mentioned possibly using “economic pressure” to turn Canada into the nation’s 51st state.
This might be the most significant election during my lifetime,” stated Kelly Saunders, a political science professor at Brandon University. “All issues have been largely overshadowed by the threats emanating from the United States.
Carney has emphasized that his experience handling economic issues makes him the best leader to deal with Trump, while Poilievre has tapped into concerns about the cost of living, crime and a housing crisis.
On Monday, Trump restated via social media his appeal for Canada to join as the 51st state of the United States.
“Wishing good fortune to the great people of Canada,” he stated. “Vote for the individual who possesses both the fortitude and sagacity to halve your taxes, boost your military capabilities at no cost until they reach unprecedented global heights, quadruple the scale of industries like cars, steel, aluminum, lumber, energy, and others—all without tariffs or taxes—if Canada joins as the treasured 51st state of the United States of America. Let’s erase those outdated borders.”
Poilievre, who has seen backing for Carney increase recently as Trump considered incorporating Canada into the U.S., reacted via social media to the president’s remark.
“President Trump, keep your hands off our election. Only Canadians voting will determine the country’s future,” Poilievre stated.
Carney shared: “Elbows up, Canada. #Never51.” The phrase “elbow up” originates from hockey and has been embraced by Canadians as a motto to resist Trump.
Carney has tried to create some space between himself and the previous Liberal Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau of Canada, who was highly disliked when he announced in January his intention to step down following almost ten years in office. During that period, the Conservative Party was leading the polls by approximately 20 percentage points.
Poilievre has drawn in a larger number of younger voters than typical for the Conservatives, with his campaign emphasizing issues like living expenses and crime.
“I’m likely going to take a stance similar to Carney’s on this issue because at present, I believe we require stability,” stated Andy Hill, a 37-year-old mortgage broker from Vancouver. “Given his experience within both the English and Canadian banking systems, he truly grasps how the economy functions.”
Bob Lowe, a 66-year-old cattle farmer residing south of Calgary, mentioned that he has already voted for the Conservatives. His primary worry is the sluggish economic expansion in Canada.
The economy was experiencing an initial rebound until the U.S. introduced tariffs.
CONSERVATIVES FOCUS ON ECONOMY
Lowe stated that the Conservatives have consistently prioritized the economy, and he feels that the Liberals have been exacerbating Canadians’ concerns regarding Trump to secure reelection.
“Poilievre has successfully maintained attention on the economy and a robust Canada, whereas Carney’s campaign revolves around fear. In short, that’s how it stands,” Lowe stated.
However, Saunders forecasts that the Liberals will secure a majority of electoral districts, also known as seats, and suggests that it would require an extraordinary set of circumstances for the Conservatives to emerge victorious. Disputes with the United States have led supporters from two minor parties—the New Democratic Party and the Bloc Québécois—to lean towards supporting the Liberals instead.
To form a majority government, a party must secure at least 172 seats.
A lot of the Conservatives’ backing comes from countryside regions which have a smaller number of electoral districts.
During his final week of campaigning, Carney visited over 20 cities, appearing fatigued yet striving to keep up his enthusiasm at gatherings where between 1,000 to 2,000 individuals were present, as reported by party officials.
Carney’s gatherings have predominantly drawn older Canadians and included signs reading “Jamais Le 51” (“Never 51”) as well as “Un Canada Fort” (“A Strong Canada”).
References to Trump have been met with loud boos.
Poilievre’s gatherings have drawn larger crowds and referenced Trump less frequently.
The election outcomes will gradually become available beginning from the eastern regions once the polling stations close at different times on Monday night. The vote counting process is done manually.
(Reported by Rod Nickel and Promit Mukherjee from Ottawa, Nivedita Balu from Toronto, and Amanda Stephenson from Calgary; with additional coverage from Susan Heavey in Washington; edited by Deepa Babington and Nick Zieminski)