- The United States carried out a major operation in Venezuela during the night, resulting in the capture of President Nicholas Maduro and his spouse.
- Experts stated that the government’s overthrow is expected to have minimal impact on oil markets, as the South American country produces roughly 800,000 barrels of oil daily.
- The unpredictability of a new government in Venezuela, home to the world’s biggest oil reserves, could have lasting effects on the energy sector.
President Donald Trump’sA shift in leadership of President Nicolas Maduro in oil-abundant Venezuela is not expected to significantly impact energy markets in the short term, according to analysts who spoke on Saturday.
Although the magnitude of the U.S. strike came as a surprise, financial markets had already accounted for a potential conflict with Venezuela that could interfere with oil shipments, according to Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, chief analyst and head of research at A/S Global Risk Management.
Venezuela, one of OPEC’s original members, possesses the biggest confirmed oil reserves globally. However, the South American country currently extracts fewer than a million barrels of oil per day, accounting for less than 1% of worldwide oil production, as reported by Rasmussen.
It exports nearly half of its output, approximately 500,000 barrels, Rasmussen noted. The conflict arises at a time when the global oil market is experiencing an oversupply and demand remains relatively low, a trend that is typical during the first quarter of the year, he added.
Rasmussen predicted that Brent crude prices will increase by approximately $1 to $2, or possibly even less, when futures trading begins on Sunday night. He anticipated that Brent will decrease slightly next week compared to its current level.closed on Friday, which was $60.75.
Although this is a major geopolitical event that typically would be positive or cause oil prices to rise,” he stated, “the reality is there’s still an excess of oil in the market, which is why oil prices won’t skyrocket.
Analyst Bob McNally from Rapidan Energy mentioned that he had been informing his clients prior to the weekend that roughly one-third of Venezuela’s oil production was in jeopardy. Although he doesn’t expect all of Venezuela’s output to be halted, he stated that it would not present a significant threat to oil markets in the near future.
The oil market experienced its largest yearly drop in five years during 2025. The global standard, Brent, decreased by approximately 19% in the previous year, while U.S. crude oil dropped by almost 20%. The market has faced significant pressure as OPEC+ increased production following several years of reduced output. Meanwhile, the U.S. continued to produce at a record high of more than 13.8 million barrels per day.
Oil prices could drop further, as the change in leadership in Venezuela increases the potential for a rise in oil production, according to analysts.
Saul Kavonic, the head of energy research at MST Financial, projected that exports might reach 3 million barrels in the intermediate future if a new Venezuelan administration resulted in the removal of sanctions and the re-entry of international investors.
“Instead, the future of Venezuela is likely to negatively affect the market, as there’s essentially nowhere left to go but upward,” said David Goldwyn, an energy industry consultant and former senior energy official at the State Department during the Obama administration.
The ban on Venezuelan oil remains in place, Trump stated during a press conference on Saturday. He also mentioned that U.S. oil companies willinvest billionsMillions of dollars to restore Venezuela’s energy infrastructure. Trump did not specify which companies would invest or the method, nor did he explain how the U.S. would temporarily manage Venezuela “with a group.”
Goldwyn mentioned that it is challenging to forecast whether American oil companies will make investments, considering the ambiguity surrounding the interim and future governments in Venezuela.
Everything we have learned regarding government transitions from Iraq, Afghanistan, and other nations shows that these transitions are challenging,” he stated. “No company will be willing to invest billions of dollars for a long-term operation until they understand the conditions. And they can’t determine the conditions until you know what the government will look like.
Goldwyn mentioned that firms, such as Exxon Mobil, are still awaiting payment for debts owed by Venezuela’s state-owned oil company, Petróleos de Venezuela S.A. (PDVSA).
McNally from Rapidan Energy mentioned that it’s a complex situation for U.S. oil companies. Oil producers haven’t forgotten being expelled from Venezuela in the early 2000s, when the country seized the assets of foreign oil companies, he noted. However, he added that gaining access to the world’s biggest oil reserves would be “very tempting” for U.S. oil companies if sanctions were removed.
However, it would require decades of investment and billions of dollars, McNally stated. The value of this effort depends on a single key question, he mentioned: Does the world truly need that much oil?
“Until the end of last year, the general belief in the market was that oil demand would cease to increase within four years. This has changed due to electric vehicles and improvements in fuel efficiency, along with climate change initiatives,” McNally stated.
However, as the U.S. and other countries, such as China and Canada, reduce their climate initiatives and electric vehicle sales decline, the idea of investing in Venezuela has grown significantly more appealing.
“Out of nowhere, you begin to say: ‘Whoa, we’re going to need more oil,’ he said.
— Additional reporting provided by ‘s Victor Loh