Outline:
The Rise in Juvenile Crime and the Impact of New York’s Raise the Age Law
At last week’s 2025 year-end crime briefing, Commissioner Jessica Tisch highlighted several successes tied to the NYPD’s focus on crime hotspots and gang activity. The data was impressive and encouraging—except for one troubling category: juvenile crime.
So why is juvenile crime rising when other violent crimes are decreasing? One possible explanation lies in New York’s 2018 Raise the Age law. This legislation increased the age of criminal responsibility to 18, meaning that most 16- and 17-year-old offenders are now handled by Family Court instead of the adult criminal justice system.
According to the NYPD, murders in New York City dropped by 20% in 2025, robberies fell by nearly 10%, and thefts and burglaries saw modest declines. Shootings were at their lowest levels ever. However, juvenile crime continued to rise.
“While we have made historic gains, generally, fighting violent crime, we have not turned the tide yet on youth violence,” Tisch told the media at One Police Plaza. She noted that 14% of shooting victims in 2025 were under 18 (up from 9% the previous year), and 18% of gun-violence perpetrators were minors as well. Both figures represent record highs since the NYPD began tracking the measure in 2018.
The Raise the Age law has led to a significant shift in how young offenders are treated. Instead of facing jail or prison time, they often receive diversionary measures through Family Court. According to a 2023 report by former Bronx Assistant District Attorney Dyer Halpern, “most defendants will never see a judge. They will receive diversionary adjustment by the probation department, and their case will be closed.”
This raises questions about whether the law is inadvertently enabling more youth crime. Two possible explanations exist:
- Juvenile crime is an anomaly– Unlike other crime categories, it may be immune to the policing strategies that have reduced shootings, homicides, and other serious crimes.
- Raise the Age itself is making youth crime worse– By diverting young offenders away from the adult justice system, the law may be sending a message that such behavior is less severe.
Communities across New York are seeing similar trends. Juvenile crime is rising statewide, prompting district attorneys to call for changes to the Raise the Age law. Mary Pat Donnelly, Rensselaer County DA and president of the District Attorneys Association of the State of New York, urged Gov. Kathy Hochul to revise the legislation to “adequately tackle the rise in youth gun violence across our state.”
However, there is skepticism about the effectiveness of rehabilitation programs. A recent Manhattan Institute review of the literature found little evidence that such programs reliably change the behavior of offenders, regardless of age. Reforming human behavior—especially that of unruly teens—is a complex and challenging task.
Policymakers should focus on addressing the gaps created by the Raise the Age law rather than assuming that rehabilitation alone can solve the problem. For example, Youth Part judges could be given access to a juvenile defendant’s full criminal history, and the process for determining whether cases are moved to Family Court should prioritize public safety.
Some advocates argue that the law was designed this way. An advocacy group recently claimed, “Raise the Age is working as intended.” Their goal was to keep juveniles out of the adult system and out of jails and prisons. By that measure, the law has been a success. But by more meaningful measures—such as whether young offenders are safer or leading more productive lives—it has failed.
The data supports this conclusion. According to the Mayor’s Office for Criminal Justice, the share of serious violent felony arrests of juveniles in New York City rose from 9.8% in 2018 to 13.1% in 2022, to 15.6% in 2024—and to 23.3% in 2025.
Juvenile offending must be considered an urgent problem. While a complete overhaul of the Raise the Age law may not be necessary, Albany should propose fixes during the current legislative session. Those who believe that any form of incarceration is too harsh for teens may resist calls to reconsider the law. But they should ask themselves: Is it right to make teen shooting victims pay for that generosity?
