Outline:
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA)stock experienced a volatile 2025, with significant fluctuations during the first half as CEO Elon Musk’s contentious government-related activities dominated the news amid declining car demand. Nevertheless, it later saw a rise to record levels toward the end of the year due to expectations surrounding the company’sAI, independent, and robotics initiatives were finally falling into place.
Get 70% Off This Holiday Season
- Unlock hedge fund-level data and powerful investing tools for smarter, sharper decisions
- Stay ahead of the financial trends withlatest updates and commentaryand optimize the potential of your portfolio
With 2026 now here, what’s next? For Baird analyst Ben Kalllo, the focus shifts to “potential catalysts” on the horizon.
Among them is the broader robotaxi deployment, as Kallo anticipates the year will bring multiple announcements related to the service. These might involve entering new cities or regions, the start of revenue generation, and obtaining regulatory clearances to launch operations in China and the EU, along with other possible achievements.
We anticipate that TSLA will start offering robotaxi services to customers as a paid option and create significant revenue in 2027,” the analyst explained. “The fleet will be fully owned by TSLA until 2028, and TSLA vehicle owners will have the opportunity to join the fleet in 2029 according to our projections.
In addition to the robotaxi, Kallo predicts that 2026 will bring updates regarding Optimus manufacturing, as well as more information on the plan and schedule for commercialization. The analyst expects the initial sales of Optimus to occur in late 2027, with around 5,000 units sold, while larger-scale production and the use of Optimus for internal factory tasks are anticipated to begin in 2026. Kallo also anticipates the Tesla Semi will be launched at increased production levels, along with ongoing growth in the Energy sector.
Regarding other assumptions regarding future developments, in the automotive sector, the analyst has abandoned his previous expectations for Model 2 deliveries, as what Kallo had previously viewed as a new vehicle design ended up being a new version of the Model 3/Y platform. Furthermore, Kallo’s current projections do not include any additional production capacity beyond the existing annual capacity of roughly 3 million units.
In another development, Kallo highlights a few encouraging indicators related to FSD. TSLA’s FSD 14 has recently received positive feedback from Jim Fan, Director of Robotics at Nvidia, continuing a string of favorable assessments that showcase the technology’s ongoing advancements. “We anticipate this will attract more interest in 2026,” Kallo noted further.
So, what does all of this really imply for investors? Kallo has given TSLA shares an Outperform (meaning Buy) rating and set a price target of $548, indicating the stock could rise by 25% in the coming months. (To see Kallo’s history,)click here)
Twelve other analysts support Kallo’s bullish stance on TSLA, but with an extra 10 Holds and 8 Sells, the stock ends up with a Hold (i.e., Neutral) overall rating. Many also believe the shares are overpriced at $395.89, with the average target anticipating a roughly 10% decline over the next 12 months. (SeeTSLA stock forecast)
To discover promising stock trading opportunities at favorable prices, visit ‘Best Stocks to Buy, a tool that brings together all of their equity insights.
Disclaimer: The views presented in this article belong exclusively to the interviewed expert. The information provided is for educational purposes only. It is crucial to conduct your own research prior to making any investment decisions.
Disclaimer & DisclosureReport an Issue