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He is already the “King of the North,” the sole regional mayor who frequently appears in the news – possibly surpassing even London Mayor Sadiq Khan – so the question many are asking is: Will Andy Burnham become the next leader of the Labour Party?
The Mayor of Greater Manchester has faced ongoing questions, but there is growing speculation that he is planning a third attempt at the position following a series of events.high-profile criticismshe has created from the young Labour Government.
He is in a special position to accomplish this, as he is not part of the parliamentary party with his own mandate, and therefore safeguarded from party control – in contrast to the four left-wing rebel MPs who lost their whip this week.
He holds a national reputation, and the timing works in his favor – his upcoming mayoral term will conclude in 2028 – allowing him to secure a Labour constituency ahead of the potential 2029 general election.
But is he interested in it?
Burnham, aged 55, has referred to the ongoing questioning as an “annoyance” but responds with standard political non-denials. At times, he states he is “not excluding a return to Westminster at some stage,” while at other times he mentions it is “not a definitive no.”
This uncertainty has prompted numerous individuals to suggest that, regardless of his statements, Burnham is subtly positioning himself to replace Sir Keir Starmer.
Only Burnham has the ability to rescue Labour
While some members of the party are more skeptical about Burnham’s claims regarding his leadership, others remain optimistic that he is serious about his intentions.
“Andy is the only person who can rescue Labour right now,” said a former Labour official.The i PaperHe doesn’t engage in factionalism, and I believe he would genuinely aim to create a wide-ranging coalition. The left would also support him since they don’t have enough members to put forward another candidate of their own.
The Mayor’s position has provided him with significant insights. He is popular, approachable, performs well in the Red Wall, and, importantly, possesses government experience.
They mentioned that, although they were enthusiastic about Burnham’s concepts, he also had the advantage of being free from the accusations directed at the Government.
“It is impossible to link any of the unliked choices to him. You essentially require someone from outside the building who cannot be held responsible, as they weren’t present to support the winter fuel, welfare, and farmers’ inheritance tax,” they mentioned.
Recent surveys back up this former advisor’s perspective. Burnham consistently leads in popularity polls as the most favored Labour Party representative, both within and beyond the party’s membership.
A study carried out by Survation, last month forLabourList, it was found that 57 percent of party members ranked him among their top three to succeed Starmer, along with Angela Rayner and Wes Streeting, with over a quarter selecting him as their first option.
A different survey conducted by Ipsos, released last week, also revealed that the British people are more inclined to believe Burnham would perform well as Labour’s leader compared to the current Prime Minister, with a difference of 35 per cent versus 26 per cent.
‘King of the North’
Despite having been a key figure in British politics for several decades, a significant portion of Burnham’s current fame has come from his position in Manchester.
Prior to becoming the mayor of Manchester in 2017, Burnham served for 16 years as the Member of Parliament for the local constituency of Leigh. Throughout this period, he advanced within the ministerial hierarchy, starting as a junior minister at the Home Office under Tony Blair, and later assuming senior Cabinet positions such as culture secretary and health secretary during Gordon Brown’s administration.
After Brown stepped down following Labour’s defeat in the 2010 general election, Burnham entered the competition to take his place. He came in fourth in the contest and was later named shadow education secretary by the winner, Ed Miliband.
In 2015, after Miliband stepped down, Burnham once more sought the position. This time, he finished second to Jeremy Corbyn, securing 19 percent of the vote compared to Corbyn’s 59 percent.
He resigned as an MP during the 2017 unexpected general election – sparking some theories that he aimed to separate from Corbyn, which he rejected – and two weeks later secured the position of Mayor of Greater Manchester with 63 percent of the votes.
Currently serving his third term, his national recognition has expanded significantly beyond that of any government minister.
His globally recognized status was established in 2020 after a speech he gave outside Bridgewater Hall in central Manchester, where he criticized then-Prime Minister Boris Johnson regarding Covid funding, which became widely shared online.
It was this stalemate that led to him being called the “King of the North,” and the significance of the event was so great that the navy worker’s jacket he wore during the press conference is now displayed in the city’s People’s History Museum, with a torn version of his speech in the pocket.
However, for one Labour MP, this incident highlighted Burnham’s skill in personal branding, although it may not always be advantageous. “He knows how to make himself visible,” they remarked sarcastically.
They highlighted his Bee Network, consisting of vibrant yellow, publicly operated buses and trams that incorporated the city’s emblem, along with his Greater Manchester Baccalaureate (MBacc), a program aimed at providing youth with practical skills, as instances of effective political communication abilities.
An Angela Rayner-shaped obstacle
Although he had a difficult beginning in No 10, there is no indication that Starmer is about to leave. However, due to the intense environment in Westminster, there have been discussions that he might be aone-term prime minister.
Although some members of the party might prefer Burnham to run if Starmer is removed, there are multiple challenges ahead, the primary one being that he is not a Member of Parliament, making him ineligible to contest in any future leadership election.
Backers express their hope that he might enter the House of Commons through a by-election prior to 2029. One possibility is Gorton and Denton – a constituency currently represented by Andrew Gwynne,who was dismissed from the position of health ministerand was suspended by the Labour Party in February due to inappropriate WhatsApp messages.
However, one individual mentioned that the greater challenge would be that “Keir wouldn’t allow him” to return to the House of Commons. The two have experienced a difficult relationship previously, with Burnham stating in 2023 that there was a “negative Westminster information network” working against his efforts in Manchester, which he suggested was centered at Labour headquarters.
That obstacle suggests he might need to wait until following the next election. “I believe he would rather have a LOTO position after the 2029 election,” a previous associate mentioned.
He is certainly on the move, as things are. He clearly won’t discuss it, but perfect timing would be him finishing in [Manchester in] 2028.
The following challenge is securing the support of MPs. According to party regulations, candidates must receive endorsements from a minimum of one-fifth of the parliamentary group, and he is expected to encounter prominent individuals such as Angela Rayner, who is currently the deputy leader.
Numerous individuals regard her as the unofficial leader-in-waiting and could challenge Burnham in terms of left-wing affiliations.
She already possesses a solid parliamentary foundation, a position in the Cabinet, and a history of effective service to the Government. Her standing is reinforced by the perception that she is the leading figure on the “soft left,” connecting left-wing activists with moderate backbenchers.
She is also more likely to gain backing from trade unions and the left wing of the membership, positioning her as a significant challenge to Burnham’s goals.
The assistant emphasized, however, that “Ange would not hinder him and might probably lose her position” in the next election, as would the other widely favored candidate Wes Streeting. “It creates a good opportunity for him in that case,” they mentioned.
It resembled a leadership proposal
Then, there is one last challenge – is he truly interested in the position? While supporters are certain he will succeed Starmer, Burnham has frequently shown that he would not want to risk his position in Manchester. If the schedules do not match, this might exclude him.
Speaking to The TimesIn April, he stated: “I have cherished this role more than any position I held in Westminster, to be honest. I have felt more authentic in it, and it has energized me more. I believe it represents the future of British politics. I genuinely do not long for returning.”
However, with his third term set to end in 2028, the timing aligns. Moreover, he has spent much of Labour’s first year in power, over the past 14 years, criticizing the present leadership.
His latest comments started at the beginning of this year, advocating for a national investigation into grooming gangs. This demand was ultimately accepted after Starmer reversed his decision not to conduct one last month.
Subsequently, he chose to strongly support the over 100 Labour MPs urging ministers tore-examine their main social welfare changes.
As the discussion intensified, his language grew more severe, shifting from describing the reforms as “the wrong decision” in March to expressing his hope that MPs would “oppose the entire bill” during a recent appearance at Glastonbury.
Then, in May, he delivered a keynote address at the annual gathering of Compass – a progressive advocacy organization. His critiques of the Government were more subtle, yet the message was clear to those who paid attention.
He didn’t specifically mention Starmer, but urged Labour to serve as the “unifying, widely supported left” faction opposing the “divisive populist right,” and stated: “I think you must confront the right. But what is the most effective way to do so? Certainly not by mimicking their language.”
Only weeks before, the Prime Minister had encountered significant backlash for stating that immigration might turn the UK into a “land of strangers,” which was broadly interpreted as an attempt to attract Reform Party supporters.
Burnham also condemned the Government for fostering “factionalism” inside the party and cautioned that there was a “hesitancy to demonstrate bravery or firmness” in policy suggestions.
The options he outlined, including the “largest and fastest” social housing initiative ever seen and introducing a wealth tax, are significantly more liberal than the present Labour strategy.
Speaking to The i Paper, a Labour MP commented on the Compass speech: “Perhaps it wasn’t explicitly a leadership bid, but it definitely sounded like one. We were aware he was referring to Starmer even though he didn’t mention his name.”