The Wild Cards: Why Macy, Close, Fraser and More Could Still Win Oscars Without Early Nods

Each year, significant focus is placed on how the four major Oscar preludes (Actor Awards, BAFTAs, Critics Choice, Golden Globes) serve as a reliable indicator of who will ultimately be nominated at the Academy Awards. However, for everyJessie Buckley (Hamnet) – someone who succeeds in every place – there is, occasionally, aMarcia Gay Harden (Pollock) Harden famously won the Oscar despite being overlooked by all the previous award ceremonies.

In other words, members of the Academy have the ability to act as they choose.

Gold Derby has pinpointed seven under-the-radar talents who remain strong contenders for the 2026 Oscars, even though they have been overlooked so far. Keep in mind that we are only looking at individuals who were not nominated at the Actor Awards, Critics Choice, or Golden Globes.pluswho did not receive mentions in theBAFTA longlists(The BAFTA nominations will be revealed on January 26).

Glenn Close (Wake Up Dead Man) for Best Supporting Actress

Notable early nominees: New York Film Critics Online, Movies for Grownups Awards

Can you say “past due”? The story of Close’s Oscar journey—eight nominations, no victories—is widely known. Although she might notwinan Oscar for the third timeKnives Outfilm, it’s entirely possible she could get her ninth professional nomination for the popular movie. Close portrays a zealous church leader who argues with the main detective (Daniel Craig) and spiritual leader (Josh O’Connor), and she delivers an outstanding final act.

Billy Crudup (Jay Kelly) for Best Supporting Actress

Notable earlier nominations: Capri Awards (group), Movies for Grownups Awards (group)

If only one extra from Netflix’sJay Kellyis nominated at the Oscars, it will certainly be exceptionalAdam Sandler. However, if Globe voters choose asecondfirst, it’ll be Crudup. He portrays Timothy, an estranged childhood friend and former acting school competitor of the main movie star (George Clooney). While Crudup has received numerous TV awards forThe Morning Showbut this would be his initial Academy Award nomination.

Brendan Fraser (Rental Family) for Best Actor

Notable forerunner nominations: Astra Film Awards, Michigan Movie Critics Guild Awards

The WhaleAn Academy Award winner appears in this Searchlight Pictures film as a struggling American actor residing in Tokyo. Fraser’s character discovers a renewed sense of direction by working for a “rental family” agency, taking on various substitute roles for strangers while seeking authentic human connections. Fraser was involved in a significant awards promotion forRental Familyand that might lead to success on Oscar nomination day.

Julia Garner (Weapons) for Best Actress

Notable forerunner name: Astra Film Awards

If Amy Madigan is the villain of Weapons, Garner is the hero. The three-time Emmy winner gives a compelling performance as an elementary school teacher who becomes a key player in a community-wide crisis when her class vanishes without a trace. Garner has so far been upstaged by her co-star (Madigan won Best Supporting Actress at the Critics Choice Awards). However, there’s a world whereWeaponsreceives a Best Picture nomination – and if that occurs, why not a Best Actress nomination as well?

Nina Hoss (Hedda) for Best Supporting Actress

Notable forerunner nominations: Astra Film Awards, Film Independent Spirit Awards

Hoss embodies the sorrowful figure at the core of the web thatTessa Thompson‘Hedda’ incorporates this updated version of the classic 1891 play. The German actress portrays an academic trailblazer and former alcoholic whose visit to a 1950s countryside home disrupts the entire social structure. It’s clearly designed for awards consideration, and Hoss is now prepared for her moment in the spotlight.

Sergi López (Sirât) for Best Actor

Notable previous nomination categories: European Film Awards, Gaudí Awards

Sirâtwas possibly the largest shock when theOscar shortlistswere revealed, receiving five (!) acknowledgments in the categories of casting, cinematography, score, sound, and international feature. Since the casting committee recognizes this Spanish film by the directorÓliver Laxe, then awards analysts should be watching for the core of the movie, López, to receive recognition as the resolute father on a quest to locate his missing daughter.

William H. Macy (Train Dreams) for Best Supporting Actress

Notable early nominations: Seattle Film Critics Society, Pittsburgh Film Critics Association Awards

This previous Oscar contender forFargo(1996) should not be overlooked in the current competition. He provides a short but memorable appearance inTrain DreamsAs an experienced logger who encounters his fate while at work, Netflix’s introspective film is expected to be a significant contender in multiple Oscar categories, including Best Picture, Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Cinematography, and Best Song (“Train Dreams”) — so why not Best Supporting Actor?

An eighth entry in the wild card race,Gwyneth Paltrow (Marty Supreme), is on the BAFTA longlist for Best Supporting Actress, but she is not currently expected to be nominated for a BAFTA in theGold Derby data.

Her notable previous nominations include the Actors Awards (ensemble) and the Movies for Grownups Awards. Could this be the performance that secures the Goop founder her second Oscar nomination?

While Marcia Gay Harden is the sole Oscar winnerwinnerTo address the precursor-snub challenge, these 18 performers were nominated following their omission by the Actor Awards, BAFTAs, Critics Choice, and Golden Globes. In other words, there’s still a chance!

• Djimon Hounsou for In America(2003): Nominee for Best Supporting Actor
• Shohreh Aghdashloo for House of Sand and Fog(2003): Contender for Best Supporting Actress
• Clint Eastwood for Million Dollar Baby(2004): Academy Award Nominee for Best Actor
• William Hurt for A History of Violence(2005): Nominee for Best Supporting Actor
• Tommy Lee Jones for In the Valley of Elah (2007): Best Actor nominee
• Laura Linney for The Savages (2007): Best Actress nominee
• Michael Shannon for Revolutionary Road(2008): Nominee for Best Supporting Actor
• Maggie Gyllenhaal for Crazy Heart(2009): Nominee for Best Supporting Actress
• Max von Sydow for Extremely Loud and Extraordinarily Close(2011): Nominee for Best Supporting Actor
• Jacki Weaver for Silver Linings Playbook(2012): Nominee for Best Supporting Actress
• Jonah Hill for The Wolf of Wall Street(2013): Nominee for Best Supporting Actor
• Bradley Cooper* for American Sniper (2014): Best Actor nominee
• Laura Dern for Wild(2014): Nominee for Best Supporting Actress
• Marina de Tavira for Roma(2018): Nominee for Best Supporting Actress
• LaKeith Stanfield for Judas and the Black Messiah(2020): Nominee for Best Supporting Actor
• Penélope Cruz for Parallel Mothers (2021): Best Actress nominee
• Judi Dench for Belfast(2021): Nominee for Best Supporting Actress
• Andrea Riseborough for To Leslie (2022): Best Actress nominee

*Cooper received a Critics Choice nomination for Best Action Actor for*American Sniperbut not a typical Best Actor nomination.

Determine if any of these Oscar underdogs secure a nomination when the announcements are made on Thursday.